The Buffalo Bills should have tried 2-point conversions twice against the Tampa Bay Bucs: How it cost them and why it matters
This is essentially the same situation as the “down-eight-go-for-two” strategy that many teams have begun to employ, just with Buffalo needing an additional field goal. Wholesale 97 Mario Addison NFL Jerseys,
The idea is that the Bills were going to have to score at least a touchdown and a field goal to have a chance to win the game no matter what Wholesale Buffalo Bills NFL Jerseys, . Had they gone for two in this situation and converted, a touchdown (and PAT) plus a field goal would have won them the game in regulatio Buy NFL Jerseys China, n. Had they failed on the 2-point try, they could have gone for two again on the second touchdown and still been in position to tie with a field go Wholesale NFL Jerseys, al. Only if they failed twice would the Bills have lost in regulation.
To put it simply: It’s much more likely to convert once than fail twice.
At the time, the win probability sacrificed appeared minimal: Buffalo’s chance to win the game dropped from 6.6% to 5.8% by incorrectly opting for a PAT. That win probability difference, however, is muted by the fact that the Bills were down big late in the game. If we knew they were going to score a touchdown and field goal again — the only scenario that mattered, and thus should have been planned for — the difference would be large.
Here’s another way to show how clear-cut this choice was: Our model estimated that the Bills needed to have a 28% chance of conversion to justify going for two. Based on league averages, their offense and the Bucs’ defense, we estimated Buffalo’s chance of conversion at 48%. That’s a huge difference that indicates there is no reasonable justification for kicking the PAT.
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